Grains Report 04/12/19

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Apr 11
For the week ended Apr 4, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 273.0 201.4 24596.7 23038.1 5795.8 1393.8
hrw 68.0 22.2 8704.3 9053.9 2432.9 395.9
srw 54.9 95.3 3298.0 2416.4 893.6 301.8
hrs 99.9 36.6 6817.6 6005.1 1342.1 360.2
white 49.3 25.8 5294.6 5189.2 1043.6 221.9
durum 0.8 21.5 482.1 373.6 83.5 114.0
corn 548.0 0.0 43743.3 48192.9 12719.3 2011.4
soybeans 270.4 10.0 43910.2 52942.1 13016.5 752.6
soy meal 152.1 0.5 9472.7 9426.3 3200.4 179.9
soy oil 33.8 0.0 618.5 715.0 174.8 2.6
upland cotton 289.0 205.9 13176.7 15052.4 5656.4 2901.2
Pima cotton 30.2 2.6 661.4 563.4 258.3 36.3
sorghum 25.0 0.0 1035.4 5094.4 258.1 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 59.4 40.0 23.5 31.6
rice 15.1 0.0 2647.8 2410.5 728.7 24.4

DJ Brazil Raises Estimate for 2018-2019 Soybean Crop, Forecast for Corn Crop
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian crop agency Conab raised its estimate for soybean production and its forecast for corn production in the 2018-2019 growing season as good weather boosted productivity in areas planted later in the season.
Brazilian farmers grew 113.8 million metric tons of soybeans in the season, a decline from the record 119.3 million tons produced in the 2017-2018 season, Conab said Thursday. In March, the agency forecast a crop of 113.5 million tons.
The 2018-2019 harvest is smaller than a year earlier because of a heat wave that struck several important soybean-producing states in December and January, Higher temperatures and less-than-normal precipitation hit areas of the states of Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul, pushing analysts and Conab to cut early forecasts for another record crop.
After the harvest passed the three-quarters finished mark toward the end of last month, the crop agency and analysts have begun to move their estimates higher, as better weather in February and March helped areas that farmers planted later in the season.
If the soybean crop finishes at Conab’s newest estimate, it will still be Brazil’s third-biggest harvest ever, after 2017-2018 and 2016-2017.
Conab also raised its forecast for the 2018-2019 corn crop, to 94 million tons from 92.8 million tons in its March report. In 2017-2018 Brazilian farmers grew 80.7 million tons of corn.
Brazil’s mild winters allow the country’s farmers to grow two crops per year, and many producers plant soybeans in the southern hemisphere’s summer and then corn in the winter. The first corn crop, which Conab estimates at 25.9 million tons, was hit by the same bad weather as the soybean crop, but the outlook for the winter crop, of 68.1 million tons according to Conab’s forecast, is improving as the area planted is expected to increase.

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were mostly higher yesterday with Minneapolis leading the way as the Winter storm pounded growing areas. The big storm through the end of this week could bring up to two feet of snow for some parts of the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Minnesota and any fieldwork will be delayed. Significant snows have been reported and big winds have brought down power lines in almost all affected areas. Some meat and grain processors have closed for a few days. It will get cold behind the system, but it should not get cold enough to injure crops in areas that do not get the snow. The export sales report was solid. Wheat export sales have been improved over the last month for the US as competing countries such as Russia run low on supplies and prices in general increase in world markets. It seems difficult to be very bearish at current prices. The big storm through the end of this week could bring up to two feet of snow for some parts of the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Minnesota and any fieldwork will be delayed. It will get cold behind the system, but it should not get cold enough to injure crops in areas that do not get the snow.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get rains this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see light precipitation this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 456, 453, and 447 May, with resistance at 464, 468, and 471 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 422, 418, and 415 May, with resistance at 434, 443, and 447 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 530, 526, and 521 May, and resistance is at 540, 544, and 549 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was little changed at the close. The market held despite a poor weekly export sales report as weather forecast for Delta growing areas show the potential for big rains in the region over the weekend and into next week. Export demand has been good despite the bad report yesterday. Domestic demand is about average as mills continue to buy. Reports indicate that they are moving now for full coverage until the next harvest. Weather conditions have improved in Texas and near the Gulf Coast and planting and initial growth are reported. The big rains earlier in the Spring made for good soil conditions for planting, but some areas are already turning dry. Some producers have had to flush the crops to get them germinated and growing. Planting and field preparation are being reported into Arkansas now as the weather has improved.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and rains on Thursday and again about Saturday. Temperatures should near to below normal.
Chart Analysis Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1021, 1016, and 1008 May, with resistance at 1047, 1058, and 1064 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little lower in response to weaker than expected export sales. Traders mostly ignored the current Winter storm as they think there is still plenty of time to get the crops planted. Forecasts call for more storms to pass through the region in a series over the next couple of weeks, so fieldwork chances will remain tough to find. The weather in the Midwest this Spring has been cold and wet and there has been little, if any, fieldwork down. This could become a problem as there was very little fieldwork done last Fall. Farmers need all the time they can get to prepare the land for planting this year and so far they are not getting much time at all. They will need to deal with a major Winter storm that could move through Nebraska, the Dakotas, and Minnesota for the rest of this week. The storm could bring some rains and snow to Chicago and into Wisconsin by the end of the week, but the big storm will be north and northwest of Chicago.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 359, 355, and 351 May, and resistance is at 363, 366, and 367 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 277, 272, and 270 May, and resistance is at 284, 286, and 291 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were a little lower on weaker export sales reports. China appears to be done buying and South American offers are taking business from the US. There are still bit supplies in the US as well, so the world will have plenty of offer to choose from. That makes it hard to look for major rallies in futures anytime soon unless the US weather remains bad. It has been wet and cool in the Midwest so far this Spring, and any fieldwork has been next to impossible to do. For now, that implies that some projected Corn area could get planted to Soybeans, but it is also very possible that some ground will be allowed to go fallow this year, especially in the flooded areas where more work will be need to bring soils into condition for production. A major Winter storm is moving through Nebraska, the Dakotas, and Minnesota this week. The storm brought some rains and snow to Chicago and into Wisconsin, but the biggest part of the storm will be north and northwest of the city into Minnesota and the Dakotas. Reports indicate bgig snows and winds that have damaged infrastructure in southern and western Minnesota and made any travel extremely difficult.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 133,759 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 892, 883, and 882 May, and resistance is at 908, 913, and 924 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 307.00, 304.00, and 301.00 May, and resistance is at 312.00, 314.00, and 316.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2960 May. Support is at 2880, 2860, and 2840 May, with resistance at 2920, 2940, and 2950 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was slightly higher. Traders are worried about demand and hope that the Canadian government finds a way to cut a deal to get Canola sales and shipments to China flowing again. New crop months were a little higher on ideas that the current low prices could cause producers to look for other crops to plant instead of Canola this year. Canola traders are still worried about big supplies in the Prairies and the lack of demand from China and expect stocks data to show higher supplies in the coming months. Palm Oil was higher on currency concerns. Data on exports so far this month was positive. Demand could remain strong as prices are cheaper on a relative basis to Soybean Oil. Short term trends remain are still turning up, but futures are pushing hard against support areas.
Overnight News: AmSpec said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are 481,425 tons, from 453,283 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 453.00, 449.00, and 446.00 March, with resistance at 459.00, 462.00, and 467.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2280 June. Support is at 2180, 2150, and 2120 May, with resistance at 2230, 2250, and 2270 May.

DJ Malaysia’s March Palm Oil Exports 1.62M Tons; Up 22% -MPOB
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were up 22% on month at 1.62 million metric tons in March, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the March crop data and revised numbers for February, issued by MPOB:
March February Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,671,865 1,544,518 Up 8.25%
Palm Oil Exports 1,617,659 1,321,946 Up 22.37%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 74,701 91,303 Dn 18.18%
Palm Oil Imports 131,242 94,278 Up 39.21%
Closing Stocks 2,917,443 3,059,400 Dn 4.64%
Crude Palm Oil 1,689,239 1,926,434 Dn 12.31%
Processed Palm Oil 1,228,204 1,132,966 Up 8.41%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Significant precipitation is likely later this weekend. More starting the middle of next week. Temperatures should be near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April +49 May +162 May +80 May +19 May +3 May
May +49 May +80 May +28 July
June +42 July +65 July +22 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
April
May +31 May -20 May
June +34 July -22 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 9
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 445.50 -9.00 May 2019 dn 2.90
Track Thunder Bay 465.30 10.00 May 2019 dn 1.20
Track Vancouver 484.50 25.00 May 2019 dn 4.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 12
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 540.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
May 542.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 552.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
July/Aug/Sep 557.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Apr 545.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
May 547.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 557.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
July/Aug/Sep 562.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 510.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 460.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 2,060 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 139 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1140)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 12
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 114,470 lots, or 3.83 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 3,328 3,328 3,307 3,310 3,319 3,313 -6 74,138 145,666
Jul-19 3,370 3,388 3,370 3,372 3,380 3,377 -3 16 268
Sep-19 3,412 3,416 3,402 3,405 3,414 3,406 -8 38,366 89,522
Nov-19 – – – 3,420 3,420 3,420 0 0 38
Jan-20 3,400 3,406 3,390 3,403 3,403 3,399 -4 1,950 32,884
Mar-20 – – – 3,414 3,414 3,414 0 0 12
Corn
Turnover: 1,023,914 lots, or 19.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 1,842 1,849 1,836 1,849 1,840 1,842 2 128,766 573,834
Jul-19 1,871 1,878 1,865 1,877 1,867 1,869 2 72,800 294,262
Sep-19 1,882 1,898 1,875 1,897 1,880 1,886 6 779,204 1,263,574
Nov-19 1,905 1,918 1,899 1,918 1,904 1,906 2 376 1,120
Jan-20 1,926 1,935 1,917 1,934 1,922 1,923 1 42,412 193,686
Mar-20 1,936 1,939 1,923 1,939 1,929 1,930 1 356 1,622
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,107,796 lots, or 54.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 2,536 2,536 2,508 2,514 2,530 2,516 -14 319,636 584,700
Jul-19 2,558 2,558 2,532 2,538 2,558 2,542 -16 107,924 201,110
Aug-19 2,609 2,610 2,580 2,585 2,610 2,593 -17 1,498 1,012
Sep-19 2,624 2,626 2,595 2,601 2,626 2,607 -19 1,623,500 2,010,074
Nov-19 2,650 2,650 2,625 2,629 2,651 2,635 -16 252 3,742
Dec-19 – – – 2,689 2,700 2,689 -11 0 216
Jan-20 2,703 2,705 2,675 2,682 2,705 2,688 -17 54,916 138,382
Mar-20 2,699 2,700 2,680 2,685 2,702 2,687 -15 70 482
Palm Oil
Turnover: 528,900 lots, or 24.55 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-19 – – – 4,330 4,330 4,330 0 0 0
May-19 4,458 4,484 4,442 4,468 4,456 4,462 6 102,970 216,396
Jun-19 4,584 4,584 4,584 4,584 4,588 4,584 -4 2 34
Jul-19 4,748 4,760 4,748 4,750 4,740 4,750 10 8 46
Aug-19 – – – 4,732 4,724 4,732 8 0 0
Sep-19 4,656 4,704 4,656 4,702 4,676 4,680 4 404,758 428,940
Oct-19 – – – 4,760 4,760 4,760 0 0 6
Nov-19 – – – 4,804 4,804 4,804 0 0 18
Dec-19 – – – 4,830 4,826 4,830 4 0 20
Jan-20 4,748 4,780 4,738 4,774 4,758 4,766 8 21,162 65,098
Feb-20 – – – 4,906 4,906 4,906 0 0 2
Mar-20 – – – 4,808 4,808 4,808 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 368,254 lots, or 20.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 5,434 5,444 5,414 5,440 5,444 5,428 -16 77,786 284,308
Jul-19 – – – 5,512 5,512 5,512 0 0 12
Aug-19 5,548 5,616 5,548 5,616 5,656 5,576 -80 56 54
Sep-19 5,592 5,604 5,572 5,602 5,604 5,588 -16 285,978 620,632
Nov-19 – – – 5,656 5,656 5,656 0 0 2
Dec-19 – – – 5,774 5,790 5,774 -16 0 10
Jan-20 5,714 5,728 5,700 5,724 5,724 5,714 -10 4,434 50,404
Mar-20 – – – 5,900 5,900 5,900 0 0 2
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.