Plausible Deniability

Trust in government is waning and moving the USDA from DC to KC is a step in the right direction as the cultural coastal elites might benefit from living amongst those who rely on the services. Regardless, we always preach the Gospel of going into USDA reports as even and open minded as possible because betting on government efficiency is a losing proposition. Going after field representatives who complie the figures is wrong yet the recent incident just reflects the distrust of DC.

Adjustmentments forprevent planting specifically for corn appears to be a "learn as you go" lesson and confidence in the production figure set to be released in September, October, November and January is not great.

Wheat still has gremlins in the Chicago contract. Yes, there are less bushels than a year ago yet the powers that be should be moving hard red into deliverable channels to optimize the variable storage rate in order to compete with the 8 cents/month potential rate for new crop corn and beans. Also, soft red wheat acreage should increase this Fall at the expebse of hard red and we might see an increase in double crop beans/wheat in those areas on the fringe of traditional wheat country.

The recent 6 to 10 day forecast of cooler and wetter than normal for the Heartland might be considered as beneficialfordevelopment and negative for prices yet we might be on the verge of viewing cooler temperatures as positive as the corn cropneeds to mature.

We continue to sense that spreads will soften as we approach first notice day against the September futures.