Grains Report 01/10/19

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 10
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL January Jan. 11, 2019 354 Jan 09, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL January Jan. 11, 2019 52 Jan 08, 2019
SOYBEAN January Jan. 11, 2019 938 Jan 09, 2019

Alerts History
• 10-Jan-2019 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2018/19 TOTAL GRAIN CROP SEEN AT 237.290 MLN TNS VS 238.406 MLN TNS IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 227.751 MLN TNS IN 2017/18 – CONAB
• 10-Jan-2019 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2018/19 SOYBEAN CROP SEEN AT 118.800 MLN TNS VS 120.066 MLN TNS IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 119.281 MLN TNS IN 2017/18 – CONAB
• 10-Jan-2019 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2018/19 SECOND-CORN CROP SEEN AT 63.734 MLN TNS VS 63.734 MLN TNS IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 53.975 MLN TNS IN 2017/18 – CONAB
• 10-Jan-2019 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2018/2019 SECOND-CORN CROP AREA SEEN AT 11.54 MLN HA VS 11.54 MLN HA IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 11.54 MLN HA IN 2017/18- CONAB
• 10-Jan-2019 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2018/19 FIRST-CORN CROP SEEN AT 27.455 MLN TNS VS 27.367 MLN TNS IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 26.810 MLN TNS IN 2017/18 – CONAB
• 10-Jan-2019 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2018/19 TOTAL CORN CROP SEEN AT 91.190 MLN TNS VS 91.102 MLN TNS IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 80.786 MLN TNS IN 2017/18 – CONAB
• 10-Jan-2019 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2018/19 TOTAL CORN YIELDS SEEN AT 5,476 KG/HA VS 5,464 KG/HA IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 4,857 KG/HA IN 2017/18- CONAB
• 10-Jan-2019 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2018/19 SOYBEAN YIELDS SEEN AT 3,322 KG/HA VS 3,354 KG/HA IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 3,394 KG/HA IN 2017/2018 – CONAB
• 10-Jan-2019 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2018/19 SOYBEAN EXPORTS SEEN AT 75 MLN TNS VS 75 MLN TNS IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 83.865 MLN TNS FOR 2017/18 – CONAB
• 10-Jan-2019 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2018/19 CORN EXPORTS SEEN 31 MLN TNS VS 31 MLN TNS IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 23.500 MLN TNS FOR 2017/18 – CONAB
• 10-Jan-2019 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2018/19 TOTAL GRAIN CROP SEEN AT 237.290 MLN TNS VS 238.406 MLN TNS IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 227.751 MLN TNS IN 2017/18 – CONAB
• 10-Jan-2019 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2018/19 SOYBEAN CROP SEEN AT 118.800 MLN TNS VS 120.066 MLN TNS IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 119.281 MLN TNS IN 2017/18 – CONAB
• 10-Jan-2019 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2018/19 SECOND-CORN CROP SEEN AT 63.734 MLN TNS VS 63.734 MLN TNS IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 53.975 MLN TNS IN 2017/18 – CONAB
• 10-Jan-2019 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2018/2019 SECOND-CORN CROP AREA SEEN AT 11.54 MLN HA VS 11.54 MLN HA IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 11.54 MLN HA IN 2017/18- CONAB
• 10-Jan-2019 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2018/19 FIRST-CORN CROP SEEN AT 27.455 MLN TNS VS 27.367 MLN TNS IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 26.810 MLN TNS IN 2017/18 – CONAB
• 10-Jan-2019 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2018/19 TOTAL CORN CROP SEEN AT 91.190 MLN TNS VS 91.102 MLN TNS IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 80.786 MLN TNS IN 2017/18 – CONAB
• 10-Jan-2019 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2018/19 TOTAL CORN YIELDS SEEN AT 5,476 KG/HA VS 5,464 KG/HA IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 4,857 KG/HA IN 2017/18- CONAB
• 10-Jan-2019 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2018/19 SOYBEAN YIELDS SEEN AT 3,322 KG/HA VS 3,354 KG/HA IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 3,394 KG/HA IN 2017/2018 – CONAB
• 10-Jan-2019 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2018/19 SOYBEAN EXPORTS SEEN AT 75 MLN TNS VS 75 MLN TNS IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 83.865 MLN TNS FOR 2017/18 – CONAB
• 10-Jan-2019 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2018/19 CORN EXPORTS SEEN 31 MLN TNS VS 31 MLN TNS IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 23.500 MLN TNS FOR 2017/18 – CONAB

WHEAT
General Comments Winter Wheat markets were higher yesterday on talk of demand from Algeria and a weaker US Dollar. It was mostly a range trade once again yesterday, with Chicago SRW holding inside the Friday range and the other markets not straying from their ranges. World markets were firm, and US FOB prices are at or below just about all of the competition. Ideas are that demand for US Wheat is about to improve, and the weekly charts show that higher prices possible in the next few weeks. World crop reports continue to indicate less production and tightening supplies. Firm prices extend from Russia to Australia on reduced world production, although Russia still shows the potential for strong exports this year. Australian and European prices have also been relatively strong. Argentine Wheat is facing quality and yield losses after more rains hit growing areas last week. It is harvest time, so the big rains are causing damage and harvest delays.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions, although light rain is possible on Friday. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Egypt bought 415,000 tons of Russian Wheat and Tunisia bought 100,000 tons of optional origin Wheat yesterday.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 524, 537, and 540 March. Support is at 518, 511, and 504 March, with resistance at 524, 530, and 538 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 524, 534, and 544 March. Support is at 504, 498, and 488 March, with resistance at 511, 517, and 524 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 580 March. Support is at 564, 557, and 553 March, and resistance is at 574, 576, and 578 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher again yesterday on hopes for some business with China. News that the negotiators made very good progress and that China has agreed to buy more US agricultural goods provided a reason to buy. Reports of less Brazil production for the coming year due to cheap prices also helped support the market as there will be less competition for sales into Central America and northern South America now. Weekly charts still show a down trend, and the quiet tone in the cash market is reflected in the futures market as buyers and sellers are not eager to be involved. There has been talk that China will now buy Rice as imports of US Rice are now permitted by the government, but no one thinks they will buy very much if they buy anything at all. The purchases that might be made should be done sooner rather than later given the current thaw in the trade war.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather this week and more precipitation this weekend. Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal today, then colder.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1089 March. Support is at 1052, 1047, and 1042 March, with resistance at 1081, 1089, and 1098 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments:
Overnight News: Corn was a little higher yesterday as demand ideas for US Corn remain strong, but no new demand was confirmed. The meetings between the US nd Chinese went well this week, and ideas are that China can start to buy Corn soon. The Chinese apparently have committed to buy more US agricultural goods as part of the settlement.. USDA is shut down now, so any demand news will have to wait or will come from the commercials. There has been no talk of big sales so far. Petroleum markets are showing signs of completing a bottom on the charts now, and that means that ethanol demand could improve soon. Corn demand for ethanol has softened in the wake of the crushing move to lower prices over the last couple of months in petroleum futures markets. Ethanol prices have also weakened and blenders no longer have a profit margin and have been cutting back on production. The Corn market seems to found increased selling interest when prices get close to the 390 March area, and has been able to find support near 370 March. Trends are currently sideways to up on the daily charts and also mostly up on the weekly charts. But, Corn was not able to follow through to the upside yesterday as funds were on both sides of the market and overall basis levels in the interior are reported to be weak. Bad weather is in the forecast for Brazil and Argentina. Argentine areas could get some more big rains in the short-term, and these areas and southern Brazil look to stay generally wet. Central and northern Brazil should get more hot and dry weather.
Overnight News: Ethanol production fell to 1,000 million barrels per day in the week ending January 4, versus 1,011 million the previous week and 996,000 barrels the previous year. Stocks rose to 23.3 million barrels, vs 23.2 million the previous week and 22.7 million the previous year. Ethanol used an estimated 101.8 million bushels of Corn in the week ending Jan 4, versus 102.9 the previous week and 102.2 million the previous year. Estimated Corn use to date for Ethanol production totals 1.903 million bushels, down 43 million or 2.2% from the previous year’s pace and 17 million below the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA’s target for the marketing year.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 385 and 392 March. Support is at 379, 377, and 372 March, and resistance is at 384, 387, and 390 March. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 283, 290, and 306 March. Support is at 280, 277, and 274 March, and resistance is at 286, 290, and 292 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were a little higher on word that the third day of trade negotiations with China went well. There are more talks to come, and more difficult issues to decide, but China has apparently committed to buy more US agricultural goods as part of any deal. There were reports that they bought up to about 1.0 million tons for government buffer stocks and is done buying for now. There was no way to confirm the sales if any were made, but that sale would bring estimated total sales to 5.0 million tons that was promised in Buenos Aires. That idea caused the selling yesterday. South American weather is bad as it has remained too wet in Argentina and southern Brazil and too dry in western Parana and parts of Mato Grosso an Mato Grosso do Sul. These weather trends continue as forecasts call for more of the same the next week. There have been reports of losses in the early harvest areas of western Parana and Mato Grosso, but the expectations of a big Brazil crop remain. Private estimates range from about 115 million tons to about 121 million tons right now. That means the crop could be less than a year ago despite increased planted area.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 942 March. Support is at 913, 910, and 900 March, and resistance is at 926, 929, and 936 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 326.00 and 336.00 March. Support is at 319.00, 317.00, and 315.00 March, and resistance is at 327.00, 334.00, and 335.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2820, 2790, and 2760 March, with resistance at 2880, 2890, and 2910 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower in range trading along with a firm Canadian Dollar and world economic fears. Commercials have plenty on hand for crushing or exporting, and overall demand is said to be light right now. News that China had approved GMO Canola was supportive. The daily charts show that futures are in a sideways to down trend. Palm Oil was lower in reaction to the MPOB reports. MPOB did not cut production as much as the trade had expected, and exports were sharply unchanged month on month. Production ideas are still dropping and are less than before and exports should be building due to reduced Indian import taxes.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 483.00, 480.00, and 477.00 March, with resistance at 487.00, 490.00, and 494.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2275 and 2450 March. Support is at 2150, 2120, and 2090 March, with resistance at 2200, 2220, and 2250 March.

MPOB – Malaysia palm oil supply and demand data in December
Observation period : Dec
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Thursday, 10 Jan
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.78 mil tonnes, Down 3.6%
Exports – 1.44 mil tonnes, Up 4.7%
Ending Stocks – 3.14 mil tonnes, Up 4.3%
Actual as follows:
Production – 1.81 mil tonnes, Down 2.0%
Exports – 1.38 mil tonnes, Up 0.6%
Ending Stocks – 3.22 mil tonnes, Up 6.9%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.85 mil tonnes, Up 6.1%
Exports – 1.38 mil tonnes, Down 12.9%
Ending Stocks – 3.01 mil tonnes, Up 10.0%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for precipitation late this week or this weekend. Temperatures should be near to below normal this week and near to above normal this weekend.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January 37 March 140 March 81 March 181 March Price
February 47 March 81 March 20 March
March 50 March 83 March 20 March
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
January -11 January
February -11 March
March 44 March -12 March

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 9
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 468.40 dn 17.00
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 504.90 up 20.00
2 Can 491.90 up 7.00
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 514.90 up 30.00
2 Can 401.90 up 17.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 10
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 530.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 540.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 547.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 570.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Jan 535.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 545.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 552.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 575.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 540.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 390.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 2,090 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 190 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.0935)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 10
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 149,516 lots, or 5.14 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 3,216 3,216 3,216 3,216 3,216 3,216 0 14 192
Mar-19 3,252 3,274 3,248 3,249 3,268 3,256 -12 14 2,278
May-19 3,439 3,468 3,416 3,430 3,436 3,438 2 143,182 137,680
Jul-19 – – – 3,460 3,460 3,460 0 0 6
Sep-19 3,497 3,504 3,469 3,475 3,489 3,484 -5 5,942 16,442
Nov-19 3,531 3,531 3,531 3,531 3,502 3,531 29 2 14
Jan-20 3,508 3,510 3,485 3,488 3,500 3,501 1 362 2,028
Corn
Turnover: 351,862 lots, or 6.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 – – – 1,844 1,844 1,844 0 0 3,890
Mar-19 1,848 1,849 1,838 1,843 1,847 1,840 -7 17,646 26,134
May-19 1,841 1,843 1,832 1,835 1,842 1,836 -6 270,540 1,210,994
Jul-19 1,872 1,872 1,864 1,868 1,871 1,869 -2 3,672 11,930
Sep-19 1,878 1,882 1,872 1,877 1,880 1,876 -4 59,106 319,226
Nov-19 1,906 1,906 1,896 1,903 1,902 1,900 -2 898 1,114
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,212,540 lots, or 32.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 – – – 2,837 2,837 2,837 0 0 5,490
Mar-19 2,788 2,808 2,771 2,794 2,791 2,785 -6 188,250 169,504
May-19 2,674 2,688 2,658 2,670 2,674 2,673 -1 946,396 1,469,434
Jul-19 2,671 2,683 2,658 2,672 2,672 2,667 -5 1,136 8,338
Aug-19 2,690 2,693 2,690 2,693 2,709 2,692 -17 44 222
Sep-19 2,705 2,719 2,692 2,704 2,706 2,704 -2 75,038 354,744
Nov-19 2,719 2,726 2,708 2,720 2,721 2,716 -5 1,668 1,802
Dec-19 2,733 2,734 2,705 2,732 2,732 2,726 -6 8 46
Palm Oil
Turnover: 541,004 lots, or 25.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 4,386 4,390 4,342 4,342 4,292 4,372 80 1,268 8,640
Feb-19 4,366 4,366 4,360 4,360 4,540 4,362 -178 4 28
Mar-19 – – – 4,486 4,668 4,486 -182 0 14
Apr-19 – – – 4,714 4,714 4,714 0 0 18
May-19 4,680 4,702 4,630 4,630 4,666 4,666 0 505,224 446,414
Jun-19 4,722 4,730 4,722 4,722 4,726 4,724 -2 18 64
Jul-19 4,726 4,726 4,726 4,726 4,726 4,726 0 4 26
Aug-19 – – – 4,728 4,728 4,728 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,704 4,722 4,664 4,670 4,704 4,696 -8 34,420 66,840
Oct-19 4,738 4,738 4,738 4,738 4,740 4,738 -2 2 26
Nov-19 4,780 4,796 4,718 4,718 4,780 4,750 -30 22 100
Dec-19 4,740 4,750 4,660 4,660 4,784 4,738 -46 42 40
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 544,138 lots, or 30.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 – – – 5,100 5,068 5,100 32 0 15,272
Mar-19 5,162 5,220 5,162 5,170 5,180 5,182 2 14 162
May-19 5,600 5,646 5,586 5,586 5,596 5,612 16 471,188 722,630
Jul-19 5,712 5,712 5,608 5,608 5,612 5,660 48 4 18
Aug-19 – – – 5,612 5,612 5,612 0 0 2
Sep-19 5,634 5,672 5,626 5,626 5,638 5,646 8 72,932 168,066
Nov-19 – – – 5,706 5,706 5,706 0 0 6
Dec-19 – – – 5,702 5,702 5,702 0 0 12
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.