Being Patient

In the fresh 6 to 10 day forecast the Heartland still looks cooler and wetter than normal with the exception on Minnesota and the Dakotas which might dry down to normal precipitation. We've ten trading sessions to go before first notice day against the May contracts and basis levels still suggest that there might be healthy deliveries in corn and beans while wheat is anyone's guess given the vomitoxin stocks. Milling quality wheat appears to be tight yet millers may be reluctant to go all the way with taking delivery as their brand may suffer grinding anything with 2 ppm vomitoxin.

We're off next Friday in observance of Good Friday. The world is still in turmoil with the yellow vests in France and now London. Brexit is being dragged out. Deal or no deal with China? Tariffs on European and Mexican goods. Does the Fed ease or tighten? How about other central banks?

The markets appear to be composed of fund shorts and farmer longs and there's an attitude of malaise. We're coming off a decade of easy money and raw commodity prices reacted accordingly. Lots of power rests with the Fed and with Mother Nature and it appears that the market is watching both for direction and at this time patience is the key.

The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.

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Steve Bruce

Walsh Trading
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